I’m taking a few risks with these predictions, namely being a complete Atonement shut out. Ten years ago, I don’t think I would have said the same thing, but the Academy landscape has changed since then.

Best Picture

• Michael Clayton
• Juno
• Into the Wild
  
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
  
• No Country For Old Men
• Alt: There Will Be Blood

Conventional wisdom would have There Will Be Blood in the final 5, but with so many Paramount Vantage films in the running, it seems like there is bound to be one that doesn’t make the cut. With comparisons to Citizen Kane and other grandiose reviews, is it the final that the Academy doesn’t like because they have to like it? Juno still seems like the most vulnerable, but damn it, money talks and it’s made more than any other potential nominee.

Best Director

• Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
• Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
• Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Sean Penn, Into the Wild
• Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
• Alt: Ridley Scott, American Gangster
  

I don’t see Jason Reitman making the cut, which is why I picked Scott as the alt prediction. This lineup for the director nomination doesn’t look to have much wiggle room.

Best Actor

• Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
• Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
• Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
  
• Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
• George Clooney, Michael Clayton
• Alt: Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Gosling over Denzel, Johnny, and Hanks? The BFCA and SAG seem to think so. If I keep up with the younger hipper Academy motif with my predictions, I can’t put the ‘old guard’ in where the new talented faces can be placed.

Best Actress

• Ellen Page, Juno
• Amy Adams, Enchanted
• Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
• Julie Christie, Away From Her
• Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
• Alt: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  

For me, this will be the race to watch, like the Sissie Spacek run for In the Bedroom. Christie’s got a nomination in the bag, as do Page and Cotillard. It may still be a three horse race for the prize. SAG will clear things up. I’m going for Amy Adams over Cate Blanchett because Blanchett has I’m Not There. And Adams, like Gosling, may be on the road to Oscar fave territory.

Best Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
• Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
• Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
• Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
• Alt: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men

I’m honestly a little uncomfortable predicting Hoffman, knowing that Jones had a magnificent year. But Hoffman had a great year, too. I’m banking on his three Oscar-worthy performances trumpting Jones’s two. It all comes down to No Country for Old Men love.

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
• Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
  
• Ruby Dee, American Gangster
  
• Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
  
• Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
• Alt: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Continuing with my prediction of a complete snub for Atonement, I’m kicking out the film’s most Oscar-worthy performance and putting in Ruby Dee. I don’t see any other surprises, unless the inevitability of one Cate Blanchett catches up with her.

Best Original Screenplay

• Juno
• Ratatouille
• Knocked Up
• Michael Clayton
• Lars and the Real Girl
• Alt: The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay

• No Country For Old Men
• There Will Be Blood
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Into the Wild
• Charlie Wilson’s War
• Alt: Zodiac

The Oscar nominations will be announced live Feb. 22 at 8:30 a.m. EST on E!