Place your bets. It’s Oscar Season 2008-2009.
Updated: Aug. 17, 2008

Best Picture

• The Dark Knight - Upon release, I was skeptical.  Now The Dark Knight finds itself in a position to become the first superhero film nominated for Best Picture.  Can it win? At this point, I wouldn’t bet against it.
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Too hot to ignore right now.  Is it the real deal?
• Defiance - One of three WWII pics in contention (Miracle at St. Anna & Australia).  The most Oscar friendly of the bunch.
• Doubt - Could go the way of Proof, but this one looks too good to be true. 
• Changeling - Will the Academy ever fall out of love with Eastwood? If you believe the Cannes reception, then we can agree it won’t happen this year. 
• In the Running: Revolutionary Road (This year’s dubious perfect contender), WALL-E, Australia, Miracle at St. Anna, Blindness, Che (The Argentine/Guerilla) 

Best Director

• Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight - If The Dark Knight is in, then Nolan is too.  He could have been nominated for any of his films, but this sensation puts him in the running big time. 
• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - See Best Picture.
• Spike Lee, Miracle at St. Anna - Switching in Lee because he’s more talented and more overdue for a nod than Edward Zwick.   
• John Patrick Shanley, Doubt - Oscar loves first time directors.  If Doubt translates (and with its cast, how couldn’t it), then watch out.
• Clint Eastwood, Changeling - Continuing to challenge himself means that Eastwood is not only loved, but also respected.  
  
• In the Running: Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road; Gus Van Sant, Milk; Edward Zwick, Defiance; Fernando Meirelles, Blindness; Baz Luhrmann, Australia

Best Actress

• Meryl Streep, Doubt - Could be Streep’s to lose.  Baity as hell, and she’s overdue for her third win.  
• Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky - Haven’t heard of her yet? If Happy-Go-Lucky is the film most people expect it to be, Hawkins could be Streep’s biggest rival for the trophy.  Mike Leigh’s films (Vera Drake, Secrets and Lies) get noticed.
• Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road - Wary of this film, but Kate has two films in contention this year. 
  
• Laura Linney, The Other Man - Working with Richard Eyre, who has directed four actors to five nominations since 2001, means Linney is going to be a contender.  Plus,  she slam-dunked her telefilm role as Abigail Adams.  Hot this year. 
• Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri - Director Stephen Frears got her nominated before and its been a while.  She’s on the upswing. 
• In the Running: Julianne Moore, Blindness; Nicole Kidman, Australia; Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Rachel McAdams, The Time Traveler’s Wife; Elizabeth Blunt, The Young Victoria

Best Actor

• Sean Penn, Milk - How can he not get nominated for this? Well, other than the Academy’s notorious homophobia. 
• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor - In the “it’s about time” column is Jenkins.  But will the buzz continue through January?
• Benicio del Toro, Che (The Argentine/Guerilla) - Cannes win and a role baity role may overcome the reported flaws in the film(s).
• Daniel Craig, Defiance - He’s been waiting for years, and Zwick has great luck getting actors nominated. 
• Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Going with the crowd on this one again.  Best news is Pitt is bound to get an Oscar one day.  Could be his year. 
• In the Running: Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Jamie Foxx, The Soloist; Liam Neeson, The Other Man; Viggo Mortensen, The Road; Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor

• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight - Presumptive winner.  The category already looks weak this year. 
• Liev Schreiber, Defiance - An actor’s actor who has been waiting for his first nomination.  Zwick-effect helps. 
• Josh Brolin, Milk - Snubbed last year, but still hot.  W. could help or hurt. 
• Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon - Snubbed for The Queen.  But is the project, helmed by Ron Howard, going to be a hit or a miss?
• Demian Bichir, Che (The Argentine/Guerilla) - Unless the project is a complete flop, I don’t see how he doesn’t get nominated.  Potentially showy. 
• In the Running: Robert Downey, Jr., The Soloist; Russell Crowe, House of Lies; Kody Smit-McPhee, The Road

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis, Doubt - Word on the street is that this role is baity as hell.  But will it be her or Amy Adams, the darling in waiting. 
• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona - The kind of female actor the Academy loves to honor. Has winner written all over her. 
  
• Amy Adams, Doubt - A darling in waiting.  But can the project carry one nominee, let alone three?
• Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited - An Oscar favorite in a great role. 
  
• Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road - Another favorite, and this project can’t go unnoticed.  Can it?
• In the Running: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading; Jessica Lange, Grey Gardens; Kate Winslet, The Reader

Updates
Aug. 17, 2008
In: The Dark Knight (Best Picture), Christopher Nolan (Best Director)
Out: Blindness (Best Picture), Fernando Meirelles (Best Director)