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2009 Best Picture Nominee Box Office Totals

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On January - 25 - 2009

I posted this last year because we all have to remember the real reason for Oscar: the Oscar bounce.

The box office boost was in full effect when Slumdog jumped 80 percent at the box office this weekend. In fact, all the nominees grabbed more cash, including The Reader, which lost 50 theaters.

Last year there were no $100 million movies nominated for Oscar. This year,The Curious Case of Benjamin Button already has that and some change in the bank.  With 13 nominations, it will likely to ride the wave for a little while, maybe to $150 million. If (when?) it wins Best Picture, Slumdog could give the Pitt starrer a run for its money.

Now onto the box office.

2008/2009 Best Picture Box Office Picture
(totals as of Thursday, Jan. 22)

  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Dec. 25)-$105 million
  • Slumdog Millionaire (Nov. 12)-$45 million
  • Frost/Nixon (Dec. 5)-$9 million
  • The Reader (Dec. 12)-$8.2 million
  • Milk (Nov. 26)-$21 million

An here are last year’s nominees with pre- and post- nomination totals.

2007/2008 Best Picture Box Office Picture
(with release dates)

  • Atonement (Dec. 7)-$33 million/$51 million
  • Juno (Dec. 5)-$87 million/$143 million
  • Michael Clayton (Oct. 5)-$39 million/$49 million (after re-issue)
  • No Country for Old Men (Nov. 9)-$49 million/$74 million
  • There Will Be Blood (Dec. 26)-$9 million/$40 million

More box office figures at BoxOfficeMojo.com.

Final Oscar 2008-2009 Nomination Predictions

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On January - 21 - 2009

Will The Dark Knight get its Best Picture nod? Will Slumdog nab the most nominations? Will Woody Allen spoil the day for another director? Will Kate Winslet get the two nods she deserves?

What’s going to happen?!

Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST the Academy will announce the Oscar nominees. Anyone who has watched the Oscar knows there are bound to be surprises. People are starting to doubt The Dark Knight, but I’m not betting against it. TDK fans will have their day. My final predictions are listed below, but check out the Oscar Predix page to see the evolution of Oscar 2008/2009.

Best Picture

  • Slumdog Millionaire - And the winner is…
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Solid, classy, the future of Hollywood.
  • Milk - The kind of politically-charged, fight-for-what’s-right kind of story the Academy loves.
  • The Dark Knight – Losing steam at the end, but still the likely to take the fifth spot.
  • Frost/Nixon - Won’t go away. Too solid of a picture to ignore.
  • In the Running: WALL-E Gran Torino

Best Director

  • Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire - You’re likely winner
  • David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – You’re likely runner-up.
  • Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight - More likely than a Best Picture nod at this point.
  • Gus Van Sant, Milk - His most solid work in years with a political environment that helps.
  • Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona - Not going to get too many chances to nominate a legend like Allen again. And he really deserves it. Look for a screenplay win.
  • In the Running: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino;

Best Actress

  • Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road - Fully loaded for a win here. More deserved than an Oscar for The Reader. But still a three way race.
  • Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married - She’s young, hot and de-glams (though not to the extent that we’ve seen in the past) for the role. If there’s anything Oscar is consistent in awarding it’s the type of role Hathaway has here.
  • Meryl Streep, Doubt - Doubt has become the actors’ movie of the year.  A Streep win would recognize the best movie actress working today, as well as a movie that appears to need some love.
  • Angelina Jolie, Changeling - The star of the moment directed by one of the most respected directors in Hollywood.
  • Melissa Leo , Frozen River - Taking Hawkins spot because sometimes the Academy does the right thing.
  • In the Running: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Best Actor

  • Sean Penn, Milk - Possibly Penn’s best work to date, crawling inside the skin of Harvey Milk. Made us hope. Made us believe.
  • Mickey Rouke, The Wrestler – Bigger than the movie itself. He’s running neck and neck with Penn.
  • Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino A fine performance from a legend. He’s never won, which may make this a three-way race.
  • Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon - The veteran actor reprising his Tony-winning stage role should get the Academy’s attention.
  • Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Holding on for dear life. Watch out for Jenkins.
  • In the Running: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Best Supporting Actor

  • Heath Ledger, The Dark KnightPresumptive winner.
  • Josh Brolin, Milk - Snubbed last year, but still hot. W. helps. Too quiet to overtake Ledger, but a worthy nomination.
  • Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire – You can’t love the movie and not love Patel as older Jamal.  A big tell if Oscar is going down the Slumdog road.
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – One of the finest actors working today in an actors’ movie.
  • Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder - If you asked me this in August, I would have said no way. But now, the weak category helps his chances.
  • In the Running: James Franco, Milk

Best Supporting Actress

  • Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona - The kind of female actor the Academy loves to honor. If Kate gets the Oscar for Rev Road, this one is waiting for Cruz.
  • Kate Winslet, The Reader - Dual nominations because she’s good. Dual wins? Welcome to the year of the Kate.
  • Viola Davis, Doubt - Baity as hell and Davis hits this one, hard.
  • Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - More popular than either Pitt or Blanchett at this point.
  • Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – An Academy favorite who could ride Rouke’s wave. A nomination here could foretell a Rouke win.
  • In the Running: Amy Adams, Doubt

Best Original Screenplay

  • Vicky Christina Barcelona
  • Milk
  • WALL-E
  • The Wrestler
  • The Visitor
  • In the Running: Burn After Reading

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Slumdog Millionaire
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • The Dark Knight
  • Frost/Nixon
  • Revolutionary Road
  • In the Running: Doubt

DGA Nominees 2009

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On January - 8 - 2009

And the DGA nominees are:

  • David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
  • Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
  • Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
  • Gus Van Sant, Milk

DGA and PGA match five for five. Will Oscar follow?

The last time the two guilds matched up was in 1998, the same year Titanic was named Oscar’s Best Picture. But along the way, Amistad lost out on a Best Picture nod, which instead went to The Full Monty.  I find it hard to believe that all five of the pictures listed above can carry their momentum into a Best Picture nomination.  The question is which one of the above movies is Amistad? Frost/Nixon, I’m looking in your direction.

The Dark Knight fans are celebrating again today, too, as Nolan nabbed a DGA award nomination. (It one a few People’s Choice Awards, too.) But now we’re looking at a situation where The Dark Knight, with all the guild support (including sound and cinematography), could lead the nomination on Jan. 22.  It will likely have to beat The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for that title.

So, if for some reason The Dark Knight takes the Broadcast Film Critics Award for Best Picture tonight and it nabs an ACE Eddie nomination on Monday, we could see the momentum in the Best Picture race swing in The Dark Knight’s direction.

If there’s an Amistad, there has to be a Titanic, right?

WGA Nominees 2009

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On January - 7 - 2009

And the WGA Nominees are:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Burn After Reading, Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Focus Features
Milk, Written by Dustin Lance Black, Focus Features
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Written by Woody Allen, The Weinstein Company
The Visitor, Written by Tom McCarthy, Overture Films
The Wrestler, Written by Robert Siegel, Fox Searchlight Pictures

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Screenplay by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; Based on the Short Story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures
The Dark Knight, Screenplay by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan; Story by Christopher Nolan & David S. Goyer; Based on Characters Appearing in Comic Books Published by DC Comics; Batman Created by Bob Kane, Warner Bros. Pictures
Doubt, Screenplay by John Patrick Shanley, Based on his Stage Play, Miramax Films
Frost/Nixon, Screenplay by Peter Morgan, Based on his Stage Play, Universal Pictures
Slumdog Millionaire, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy, Based on the Novel Q and A by Vikas Swarup, Fox Searchlight Pictures

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story, Written by Stefan Forbes and Noland Walker, InterPositive Media
Chicago 10, Written by Brett Morgen, Roadside Attractions
Fuel, Written by Johnny O’Hara, Greenlight Theatrical / Intention Media
Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson, Screenplay by Alex Gibney, From the Words of Hunter S. Thompson, Magnolia Pictures
Waltz with Bashir, Written by Ari Folman, Sony Pictures Classics

Okay The Dark Knight fans are celebrating again, but this time it’s warranted.  The Dark Knight wasn’t a likely WGA nominee.  I was expecting a nod for those Kate Winslet movies,The Reader or Revolutionary Road. Yes, fanboys, there is Oscar love in The Dark Knight’s future.  A DGA nomination for Nolan will confirm it.

As for the Oscar nominees, I’d toss out Doubt and replace it with one of the two Winslet pictures I just mentioned.

In the Original Screenplay category, you can expect the Coens to lose their Oscar nomination to WALL-E, which was ineligible for the WGA award.  The other four look solid for Oscar. Though Rachel Getting Married could kick The Visitor.

PGA Award Nominations 2009

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On January - 5 - 2009

And the PGA nominees are:

  • Slumdog Millionaire
  • Milk
  • Frost/Nixon
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • The Dark Knight

To  all of you who keep freaking out over The Dark Knight actually appearing on this list, may I present you with a great big helping of so the f what

The facts are these:

The PGA is the group that nominated Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and Shrek for their top honor in the same year.  Quality big money movies get in.  It’s certainly good that the producers are backing the picture, but the Directors Guild of America, with the exception of last year, is a better test of a film’s chances. The director’s have gone five for five with Oscar’s Best Picture nominations before (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006), whereas it’s common to see one of the PGA names left off Oscar’s short list.  

That said, consensus says the pictures above will also likely be your DGA nominees. I have a sneaking suspicion that we’re going to see a Darren Aronofsky nod for The Wrestler when the DGA nominations announced with a noticeably absent Ron Howard.

The Dark Knight fans, you’ll get your nod. But celebrating a PGA nomination is just silly. (Especially when The Dark Knight is not the first superhero movie to get nominated. That was The Incredibles.)  Wait for it. Let it happen.

Right now, I’m just going to sit back a cry that WALL-E wasn’t nominated.  If there was any place for it to gain steam, the PGA nods would have been it.

Movie Review: ‘Doubt’ & ‘Frost/Nixon’

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On December - 28 - 2008

Doubt — ***
Frost/Nixon — ***1/2

The differences between Doubt, an adaptation of John Patrick Shanley’s stage play directed by the playwright, and Frost/Nixon, an adaptation of Peter Morgan’s play directed by Hollywood filmmaker Ron Howard, reveal two approaches to theatrical adaptations. Doubt looks like a stage production forced to be a movie, while Frost/Nixon is a cinematic production of a popular play.

Both Doubt and Frost/Nixon are good films, but Frost/Nixon borders on greatness because, despite being more cinematic, I’m never aware that I’m watching a movie.

Doubt, with distracting oblique camera angles and calculated, theatrical dialogue, makes it hard to engage the story at its most basic level. And it’s a story that should be engaging. Sister Aloysius (Meryl Streep) accuses Father Flynn (Philip Seymour Hoffman) of sexual abuse based on novice Sister James’ (Amy Adams) reports. “So, it’s happened,” says Sister Aloysius when she’s first told of Flynn calling an altar boy to the rectory, as if she was waiting for this her entire career.

Streep’s performance doesn’t feel true to the story, especially in the film’s final moments. She creates a character that is marvelous to watch, but being of the YouTube generation, her most severe moments would be more entertaining strung together in a video montage, out of the context of the film.

Does that mean the film isn’t well acted? I wouldn’t go that far. Streep and Hoffman have an emotional exchange late in the film where Streep’s Aloysius tells Hoffman’s Flynn that she will not relent and Hoffman begins to realize exactly what he is up against. Adams and Hoffman have a more delicate interaction in the church’s garden earlier in the film where he lays out Father Flynn’s case to Sister James. Adams, whose innocent exterior is so often confronted by an internalized awareness, is perfectly cast as Sister James, the nun in the middle.

But Viola Davis, playing the mother of the altar boy, gives the film’s most devastating performance. As she explains why pursuing the charges would destroy her child to Sister Aloysius, we see the film’s truest moments. In these exchanges, we are invited into the movie through some of the best screen acting this year. But it’s Shanley’s overly cinematic direction and, I never thought I would say this, Roger Deakins distracting cinematography, that violently pull you out of the film.

I never enjoyed the slow burn of Doubt because of its little distractions, whereas Frost/Nixon, a film equally heavy on great acting, demands your attention. Peter Morgan, who wrote both the stage play and the screenplay, has an enviable awareness of both mediums. And Ron Howard, who is a sentimental filmmaker, adds his own touch of humanity to Morgan’s work. When Howard gets his teeth into something with a little bit of intellectual heft, he makes great films. Frost/Nixon is as close as he’s come to greatness since A Beautiful Mind.

I’ve never seen Frost/Nixon on stage (or Doubt for that matter), but I have a feeling Howard was able to amplify Frost’s troubles beyond what is called for in the theatrical production. Michael Sheen as British talk-show host David Frost, who originated the role on the London stage, is thrilling to watch as he realizes just how much he has on the line. When Richard Nixon (Frank Langella) agrees to the Frost interview, the first since his resignation, he expects a soft-ball approach. Frost meets those expectations until the playboy/showman finally understands that he is doing something of greater importance than just another celebrity interview.

Frost/Nixon progresses like a boxing match, with the competitors retreating to the corners and getting advice from their trainers. It’s Nixon who finally and unexpectedly throws in the towel.

Like Sheen’s Frost, Langella’s Nixon is amazing to watch. (Langella also played Nixon in the original stage production.) He’s guarded and tricky, borders on mad, not unlike Anthony Hopkins in Oliver Stone’s Nixon. But it’s the moment Nixon makes the decision to admit his guilt when Langella gets the chance to expose Nixon, the man. We may not see his soul, but at least we experience his conscience.

Those final moments in Frost/Nixon seem much less stagy than those in Doubt. Both films, however, make me wonder if contemporary theatrical adaptations can even become great movies. Neither achieves the greatness of a film like Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? or a Tennessee Williams adaptation from the 1950s. Just look at other recent stage-to-screen productions like Rent, The Producers, or Proof. Something is lost in the adaptation.

Though I have faith Frost/Nixon will get better with subsequent viewings, I still have doubts about Doubt. I guess that says something about both films. Frost/Nixon makes me want to see it again. It’s solid entertainment. Doubt isn’t.

2008’s Creative Dearth

Posted by Dan Stasiewski On October - 27 - 2008

As someone who fancies himself a bit of a film critic, I try to manage my own expectations despite my genuine love of cinema. (That sound pretentious, but bear with me.) Before this year, I would generally see anything that was thrown in front of me because I would rather watch a bad movie than no movie at all. Lucky for me, from 2005 to 2007, I was able to sit down in front of movies that were great beyond all expectations or at least interesting in spite of their flaws.

The three years prior to 2008 were amazing years for cinema. We saw great filmmakers working at the peak of their powers. From Spielberg with Munich to the Coens with No Country for Old Men, filmmakers were responding to the world in a way that audiences haven’t seen since the 1970s. Why then has 2008 sucked so bad?

Most people leave a comment like that for their year-in-review. And to some, every year is a bad year if it’s not a 1939 or 1999. This year, however, has been exceptionally disappointing. The Coen Brothers returned to a form we didn’t want to see from them again with Burn After Reading. Brazil’s Fernando Meirelles crashed and burned with Blindness, a film so universally panned that I didn’t even bother to see it. David Gordon Green’s working class drama Snow Angels wasn’t nearly as good as his stoner comedy Pineapple Express. Even Martin Scorsese’s Shine a Light, a Rolling Stones concert film, didn’t start me up the way I wished it would have. Then there’s Spielberg, who made a summer blockbuster that shall not be named. The masters were at work, but they weren’t producing the work of masters.

It’s nearly November and the best movie I’ve seen so far this year is WALL·E. It’s a future classic to be sure, but not the movie I thought would be at the top of my list at this point in the year. I’ve had fun at movies like In Bruges, Iron Man, and Religulous. I was surprised at how good an Iraq War film could actually be when I watched Stop Loss. And of course, there was Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. The difference between these movies and the movies I saw in years past is none of them have moved me to regularly visit my local cineplex. I feel as disillusioned about the movies this year as most Republicans do watching John McCain run for president. Something is going terribly wrong.

I watched more movies this year than I have in years past. Most of the ones I caught, however, were classics or personal favorites, movies I could curl up with at home. I read more about movies than I have ever had the pleasure to do, too. I didn’t fall out of love with the cinema, but I hit a rough patch that had me searching through my memory box to reflect on better days.

Sure, 2008 is backloaded. Revolutionary Road, Milk, Doubt, The Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire, Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Frost/Nixon are still to come. Rachel Getting Married just opened here in Cleveland. Plus there’s an Eastwood one-two punch coming at us with Changeling and Gran Torino. But if history has shown us anything, it’s that at least half of these pictures won’t live up to the hype.

So, fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy 65 days.

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