TFC Journal at TheFilmChair.com

The Writers Guild of America gave out its awards last night, making the Best Picture race even less interesting as the inevitable Slumdog win becomes crystal clear.  Slumdog now has the DGA, PGA, SAG, and WGA (Adapted Screenplay) awards. Yes, that’s every major guild prize.

In other news, Milk took home the WGA original screenplay award, but still faces an Oscar challenge from WALL-E, which was ineligible for the WGA award.  The Best Original Screenplay Oscar, along with the Best Actress, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actress awards, will keep Oscar night interesting, as those categories are up in the air.  Meryl, Kate, maybe Anne for Best Actress. Sean, Mickey, maybe Frank or even Brad for Best Actor. Any of the above in Supporting Actress, except Amy Adams.

I’ll get to posting Oscar predictions in the next week or so, but I doubt it will be any clearer. Outside of the Slumdog wins, anything can happen.

I posted this last year because we all have to remember the real reason for Oscar: the Oscar bounce.

The box office boost was in full effect when Slumdog jumped 80 percent at the box office this weekend. In fact, all the nominees grabbed more cash, including The Reader, which lost 50 theaters.

Last year there were no $100 million movies nominated for Oscar. This year,The Curious Case of Benjamin Button already has that and some change in the bank.  With 13 nominations, it will likely to ride the wave for a little while, maybe to $150 million. If (when?) it wins Best Picture, Slumdog could give the Pitt starrer a run for its money.

Now onto the box office.

2008/2009 Best Picture Box Office Picture
(totals as of Thursday, Jan. 22)

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Dec. 25)-$105 million
• Slumdog Millionaire (Nov. 12)-$45 million
• Frost/Nixon (Dec. 5)-$9 million
• The Reader (Dec. 12)-$8.2 million
• Milk (Nov. 26)-$21 million

An here are last year’s nominees with pre- and post- nomination totals.

2007/2008 Best Picture Box Office Picture
(with release dates)

• Atonement (Dec. 7)-$33 million/$51 million
• Juno (Dec. 5)-$87 million/$143 million
• Michael Clayton (Oct. 5)-$39 million/$49 million (after re-issue)
• No Country for Old Men (Nov. 9)-$49 million/$74 million
• There Will Be Blood (Dec. 26)-$9 million/$40 million

More box office figures at BoxOfficeMojo.com.

One of the problems with living in a place like Cleveland (or Erie, Pa. before this) and not in NYC or LA is that you don’t get to see all the movies of 2008 until it’s 2009. I’ve always given myself an extra month to catch up.

Considering the lackluster year it’s been for movies, it’s no surprise that I could have published this list a few weeks ago. (Damn you Fox Searchlight for holding back The Wrestler.) It’s also no surprise that a three-and-a-half star movie made it onto my list for the first time since I started compiling them. That would Woody Allen’s best film in years, Vicky Christina Barcelona.

But even in bad years, there are certain movies that you fall in love with. I can’t remember caring about the characters in the movies as much as I did this year. Ballast, Rachel Getting Married, The Edge of Heaven, Milk, Slumdog, Benjamin Button, Vicky Christina Barcelona and even WALL-E didn’t just make me root for their characters. No, they made me feel like I knew them on a very intimate level. Even movies like The Wrestler, The Visitor, and Gran Torino, which didn’t make my list, took me inside lives of the characters beyond simple voyeurism.

Then there are the masterpieces like Revolutionary Road and Let the Right One In, which each affected me for days. I love when movies do that. I just love it.

So here they are, the top ten films of 2008 from TFC Journal at TheFilmChair.com:

1. Revolutionary Road (dir. Sam Mendes)
2. Let the Right One In (dir. Tomas Alfredson)
3. Ballast (dir. Lance Hammer)
4. The Edge of Heaven (dir. Fatih Akin)
5. WALL-E (dir. Andrew Stanton)
6. Rachel Getting Married (dir. Jonathan Demme)
7. Milk (dir. Gus Van Sant)
8. Slumdog Millionaire (dir. Danny Boyle)
9. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (dir. David Fincher)
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (dir. Woody Allen)

Honorable Mention: Gran Torino (dir. Clint Eastwood)

Best Director – Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Best Actress – Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Best Actor – Sean Penn, Milk
Best Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis, Doubt

Song of the Year:  “The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler

Quote of the Year:
“Don’t talk like one of them. You’re not! Even if you’d like to be. To them, you’re just a freak, like me! They need you right now, but when they don’t, they’ll cast you out, like a leper! You see, their morals, their code, it’s a bad joke. Dropped at the first sign of trouble. They’re only as good as the world allows them to be. I’ll show you. When the chips are down, these… these civilized people, they’ll eat each other. See, I’m not a monster. I’m just ahead of the curve.” – The Joker, The Dark Knight

Will The Dark Knight get its Best Picture nod? Will Slumdog nab the most nominations? Will Woody Allen spoil the day for another director? Will Kate Winslet get the two nods she deserves?

What’s going to happen?!

Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST the Academy will announce the Oscar nominees. Anyone who has watched the Oscar knows there are bound to be surprises. People are starting to doubt The Dark Knight, but I’m not betting against it. TDK fans will have their day. My final predictions are listed below, but check out the Oscar Predix page to see the evolution of Oscar 2008/2009.

Best Picture

• Slumdog Millionaire - And the winner is…
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Solid, classy, the future of Hollywood.
• Milk - The kind of politically-charged, fight-for-what’s-right kind of story the Academy loves.
  
• The Dark Knight – Losing steam at the end, but still the likely to take the fifth spot.
• Frost/Nixon - Won’t go away. Too solid of a picture to ignore.
• In the Running: WALL-E,  Gran Torino

Best Director

• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire - You’re likely winner
• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – You’re likely runner-up.
• Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight - More likely than a Best Picture nod at this point.
• Gus Van Sant, Milk - His most solid work in years with a political environment that helps.
• Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona - Not going to get too many chances to nominate a legend like Allen again. And he really deserves it. Look for a screenplay win.
• In the Running: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino;
  

Best Actress

• Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road - Fully loaded for a win here. More deserved than an Oscar for The Reader. But still a three way race.
• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married - She’s young, hot and de-glams (though not to the extent that we’ve seen in the past) for the role. If there’s anything Oscar is consistent in awarding it’s the type of role Hathaway has here.
• Meryl Streep, Doubt - Doubt has become the actors’ movie of the year.  A Streep win would recognize the best movie actress working today, as well as a movie that appears to need some love.
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling - The star of the moment directed by one of the most respected directors in Hollywood.
• Melissa Leo , Frozen River - Taking Hawkins spot because sometimes the Academy does the right thing.
• In the Running: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Best Actor

• Sean Penn, Milk - Possibly Penn’s best work to date, crawling inside the skin of Harvey Milk. Made us hope. Made us believe.
• Mickey Rouke, The Wrestler – Bigger than the movie itself. He’s running neck and neck with Penn.
• Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino – A fine performance from a legend. He’s never won, which may make this a three-way race.
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon - The veteran actor reprising his Tony-winning stage role should get the Academy’s attention.
• Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Holding on for dear life. Watch out for Jenkins.
• In the Running: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Best Supporting Actor

• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight – Presumptive winner.
• Josh Brolin, Milk - Snubbed last year, but still hot. W. helps. Too quiet to overtake Ledger, but a worthy nomination.
• Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire – You can’t love the movie and not love Patel as older Jamal.  A big tell if Oscar is going down the Slumdog road.
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – One of the finest actors working today in an actors’ movie.
• Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder - If you asked me this in August, I would have said no way. But now, the weak category helps his chances.
• In the Running: James Franco, Milk

Best Supporting Actress

• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona - The kind of female actor the Academy loves to honor. If Kate gets the Oscar for Rev Road, this one is waiting for Cruz.
• Kate Winslet, The Reader - Dual nominations because she’s good. Dual wins? Welcome to the year of the Kate.
• Viola Davis, Doubt - Baity as hell and Davis hits this one, hard.
• Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - More popular than either Pitt or Blanchett at this point.
• Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – An Academy favorite who could ride Rouke’s wave. A nomination here could foretell a Rouke win.
• In the Running: Amy Adams, Doubt

Best Original Screenplay

• Vicky Christina Barcelona
• Milk
• WALL-E
• The Wrestler
• The Visitor
• In the Running: Burn After Reading

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Slumdog Millionaire
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Frost/Nixon
• Revolutionary Road
• In the Running: Doubt

No real surprise as Slumdog Millionaire takes top prize (and 4 others) at the BFCA Critics’ Choice Awards. (Sorry, The Dark Knight fans.) All signs continue to point to Slumdog as the Best Picture favorite.

Damn me for not having cable television. I’d would have liked to seen some of these acceptance speeches, especially Kate Winslet’s for her surprise win in the Supporting Actress category. These speeches are make or break for a potential Oscar winner.  You’ll see more of them on Sunday at the Not the Oscars… err… Golden Globes.

Here are all your Critics’ Choice winners (courtesy of AwardsDaily.com):

Best Comedy Movie: Tropic Thunder
Best Acting Ensemble: Milk
Best Young Actor/Actress: Dev Patel
Best Writer: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Action Film: The Dark Knight
Best Composer: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Song: Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler
Best Documentary: Man On Wire
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
Best Animated Feature: WALL·E
Best Movie Made for TV: John Adams
Best Actress: tie – Meryl Streep, Doubt; Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire

And the DGA nominees are:

• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
• Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
• Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
• Gus Van Sant, Milk

DGA and PGA match five for five. Will Oscar follow?

The last time the two guilds matched up was in 1998, the same year Titanic was named Oscar’s Best Picture. But along the way, Amistad lost out on a Best Picture nod, which instead went to The Full Monty.  I find it hard to believe that all five of the pictures listed above can carry their momentum into a Best Picture nomination.  The question is which one of the above movies is Amistad? Frost/Nixon, I’m looking in your direction.

The Dark Knight fans are celebrating again today, too, as Nolan nabbed a DGA award nomination. (It one a few People’s Choice Awards, too.) But now we’re looking at a situation where The Dark Knight, with all the guild support (including sound and cinematography), could lead the nomination on Jan. 22.  It will likely have to beat The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for that title.

So, if for some reason The Dark Knight takes the Broadcast Film Critics Award for Best Picture tonight and it nabs an ACE Eddie nomination on Monday, we could see the momentum in the Best Picture race swing in The Dark Knight’s direction.

If there’s an Amistad, there has to be a Titanic, right?

And the WGA Nominees are:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Burn After Reading, Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Focus Features
Milk, Written by Dustin Lance Black, Focus Features
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Written by Woody Allen, The Weinstein Company
The Visitor, Written by Tom McCarthy, Overture Films
The Wrestler, Written by Robert Siegel, Fox Searchlight Pictures

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Screenplay by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord; Based on the Short Story by F. Scott Fitzgerald, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures
The Dark Knight, Screenplay by Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan; Story by Christopher Nolan & David S. Goyer; Based on Characters Appearing in Comic Books Published by DC Comics; Batman Created by Bob Kane, Warner Bros. Pictures
Doubt, Screenplay by John Patrick Shanley, Based on his Stage Play, Miramax Films
Frost/Nixon, Screenplay by Peter Morgan, Based on his Stage Play, Universal Pictures
Slumdog Millionaire, Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy, Based on the Novel Q and A by Vikas Swarup, Fox Searchlight Pictures

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story, Written by Stefan Forbes and Noland Walker, InterPositive Media
Chicago 10, Written by Brett Morgen, Roadside Attractions
Fuel, Written by Johnny O’Hara, Greenlight Theatrical / Intention Media
Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson, Screenplay by Alex Gibney, From the Words of Hunter S. Thompson, Magnolia Pictures
Waltz with Bashir, Written by Ari Folman, Sony Pictures Classics

Okay The Dark Knight fans are celebrating again, but this time it’s warranted.  The Dark Knight wasn’t a likely WGA nominee.  I was expecting a nod for those Kate Winslet movies,The Reader or Revolutionary Road. Yes, fanboys, there is Oscar love in The Dark Knight’s future.  A DGA nomination for Nolan will confirm it.

As for the Oscar nominees, I’d toss out Doubt and replace it with one of the two Winslet pictures I just mentioned.

In the Original Screenplay category, you can expect the Coens to lose their Oscar nomination to WALL-E, which was ineligible for the WGA award.  The other four look solid for Oscar. Though Rachel Getting Married could kick The Visitor.

And the PGA nominees are:

• Slumdog Millionaire
  
• Milk
  
• Frost/Nixon
  
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• The Dark Knight

To  all of you who keep freaking out over The Dark Knight actually appearing on this list, may I present you with a great big helping of so the f what. 

The facts are these:

The PGA is the group that nominated Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and Shrek for their top honor in the same year.  Quality big money movies get in.  It’s certainly good that the producers are backing the picture, but the Directors Guild of America, with the exception of last year, is a better test of a film’s chances. The director’s have gone five for five with Oscar’s Best Picture nominations before (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006), whereas it’s common to see one of the PGA names left off Oscar’s short list.  

That said, consensus says the pictures above will also likely be your DGA nominees. I have a sneaking suspicion that we’re going to see a Darren Aronofsky nod for The Wrestler when the DGA nominations announced with a noticeably absent Ron Howard.

The Dark Knight fans, you’ll get your nod. But celebrating a PGA nomination is just silly. (Especially when The Dark Knight is not the first superhero movie to get nominated. That was The Incredibles.)  Wait for it. Let it happen.

Right now, I’m just going to sit back a cry that WALL-E wasn’t nominated.  If there was any place for it to gain steam, the PGA nods would have been it.

It’s not an out-of-left-field choice like LAFCA’s WALL-E pick, but the NYFCC solidifies Milk’s position as a serious contender in the Best Picture race.  It’s also worth noting that Penelope Cruz is sweeping the Supporting Actress awards so far this season. She’s 3 for 3 at with her NBR, LAFCA, and NYFCC wins.

Best Picture – Milk
Best Director – Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Actor – Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress – Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Supporting Actor – Josh Brolin, Milk
Best Supporting Actress – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Screenplay – Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Best Cinematographer – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Film – 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
Best Animated Film – WALL-E
Best First Film – Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Best Documentary – Man on Wire

Official NYFCC Awards Site

Disney/Pixar’s WALL-E  nabbed the Los Angeles Film Critics Association award for Best Picture today.  In the past 25 years, 4/5 of the picture that received the prize went on to get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. My initial guess is that WALL-E will join the ranks of those nomination-less winners of years past.  But this certainly gives WALL-E fans a little more hope going into the final month and a half ahead of the Oscar noms announcement. 

Other 2008 LAFCA winners
Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Elegy
Screenplay: Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky

Official Announcement